BRACKETOLOGY BY STATS AND STATS ONLY – 2009 VERSION       

            I have collected the last 14 year’s of Final Four teams or 56 teams.  With that I have created certain qualifications for a Final Four Team.  I have created three different qualifications for teams. 

Fatal Flaws:  90% of Final Four Teams have this qualification.  If your team doesn’t match this level in all likelihood they will be exposed before they reach the Final Four.

Must Do’s:   70% of all Final Four Teams did this.   Top 37

YOU WILL NOT GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF …
1. Offensive Efficiency is below 90 ---  
2. If you defensive efficiency is above 82.5..
3. If your efficiency differential is below 10 
4. Effective Field Goal % is under 50% 
5. If your defensive Effective Field Goal % is over 47.5% 
6. If your effective field goal % differential is under 4.5
7. If your rebounding % is below 51%
8. If you turnover just 16% of your defensive possessions. (2)

Finally, what does a Final Four team look like. These are the qualities that 70% of the last 14 years worth of Final Four Teams have.
YOU CAN GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….(at least 70% of Final Four Teams)
1. Offensive Efficiency over 92.9
2. Defensive Efficiency under 81.
3. Efficiency Difference is over 14
4. Effective Field Goal over 52.5%
5. Defensive effective Field Goal below 46%
6. Field Goal Differential over 7
7. Rebounding % over 52.5%
8. Defensive turnover % must be over 18% 

Efficiency Differential has been the single best indicator of who wins individual games.

Past Success or Failure

OVERALL SUCCESS IN THE 05 BRACKET

Final Four Team:  Four had 0 flaws and Efficiency Differential got 4 of 4.

OVERALL SUCCESS IN THE 06 BRACKET

Final Four:  Two with 0 fatal flaws, 2 with 1 fatal flaws,  Efficiency Differential got 1 of 4.

OVERALL SUCCESS IN THE 07 BRACKET

Final Four:  Three with 0 fatal flaws; 1 with one.   Efficiency Differential got 1 of 4

OVERALL SUCCES IN THE 08 BRACKET

Final Four:  Two had zero fatal flaw and 2 had one.  Efficiency Differential got 4 of 4

OVERALL

11 of the 16  – 69% Final Four Teams have had zero flaws.

Only 1 of 16 Final Four Teams have had more than one fatal flaw 5 of 16 have had 1

Efficiency Differential was successful in projecting

63% of Final Four Teams

69% of Elite Eight Teams

64% of Sweet Sixteen Teams.

Here is the breakdown for the 2009 brackets

EAST BRACKET

Analysis:  The middle of this bracket is awful.  I would UCLA to be the surprise team. Their lack of defense is their fatal flaw, but they have had a fatal flaw each of the last two years as well. 

MIDWEST BRACKET

Analysis:  This is a very hom-hum bracket.  The middle is terrible and all prime to be beat but no one is really good enough to make a run.  .   First Round upsets are hard to call, Michigan State is vulnerable, but probably not Robert Morris.  I would take Sienna in the 8/9 match-up. 

SOUTH BRACKET

Analysis:  This is a loaded bracket.  Two teams separate themselves in UNC and the Zags.  Don’t get carried away picking upsets in this bracket.  These teams are legit.  ASU has one of the best offenses in the country and that makes them capable of beating anyone any night, but their fatal flaw is their defense.   They are a Sweet Sixteen team with a legit chance of going Elite Eight.   The upsets here happen in the second round.  First Round Upset:  Butler over LSU, but no one else is capable. 

WEST BRACKET

Analysis:  Not a team without a fatal flaw makes this very interesting. UConn doesn’t force enough turnovers.  Memphis is a poor offensive team and doesn’t shot well enough.  Missouri doesn’t rebound.  BYU doesn’t play good enough defense.

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