Weather
Locke's Numbers NCAA PicksLocked on Sports 3 to 6 on 1320, K-Fan
By
Steve Baxter
|
|
Year
|
Round of 32
|
Sweet 16
|
Elite 8
|
Final 4
|
|
2008
|
24
|
12
|
6
|
4
|
|
2007
|
26
|
9
|
6
|
2
|
|
2006
|
21
|
10
|
5
|
2
|
|
2005
|
25
|
9
|
4
|
4
|
|
Avg
|
75%
|
63%
|
69%
|
64%
|
- If a Mid-Major team has a differential advantage of 3 or less then we look beyond efficiency differential because those teams are only winning at a rate of 53%
- The next indicator is offensive efficiency or effective field goal percentage because offensive wins
- Teams that can’t shoot don’t last in the tournament
- Defensive turnovers forced has been a good indicator of upsets in early rounds.
Certainty of Picks
Here is the success rate of picks based on the efficiency differential of the two teams.
|
Differential of Game
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
.1 to 2.9
|
69% (42-19)
|
|
3.0 to 5.9
|
72% (21-8)
|
|
6.0 to 8.9
|
71% (22-9)
|
|
9.0 to …..
|
100% (28-0)
|
WEST BRACKET
Final Four Team: Memphis Tigers
Elite Eight Match-up: Memphis Tigers v. UConn
Sweet Sixteen: UConn, Purdue, Missouri and Memphis
First Round - (Efficiency Differential in parenthesis)
UConn (16.2)
BYU (16.5) over Texas A&M (6.9) - a +9 differential advantage has not lost
Washington (10.7) over Mississippi State (7.4)
Purdue (13.6) over Northern Iowa (5.9)
Utah State (15.0) over Marquette (11.6) - goes over the 3.0 differential so take Aggies
Missouri (17.3)
California (8.8) over Maryland (3.6)
Memphis (21.1)
Second Round
UConn (16.2) over BYU (16.5) -- BYU has a better differential but as we showed earlier Mid Major programs with an efficiency differential advantage less than 3 then it is a pick em. We will take UConn but either way could work. UConn is a good offensive team.
Purdue (13.6) over Washington (10.7) – Washington struggles offensively and that is tough in the NCAA’s
Missouri (17.3) over Utah State (15.0) Mid major under-dogs with an efficiency disadvantage of more than 3 have won just 3 of 23 games.
Memphis (21.1) over California (8.8) -- +9 differential 29 of 29.
MIDWEST BRACKET
Final Four Team: Lousiville
Elite Eight Match-Up: Lousiville v. Kansas
Sweet Sixteen: Lousiville, Kansas, Wake Forest, and Michigan State
First Round
Louisville (15.1)
Sienna (9.1) over Ohio State (7.2) – this is a mid major with less than a three point efficiency differential advantage therefore it is a pick em. Ohio State is the better offensive team and better shooting team. We are still taking Sienna because of differential.
Utah (9.9) over Arizona (5.0) -- Mid Majors with an efficiency differential advantage of more than 3 are 6-2 over the last 4 years.
Wake Forest (12.7) over Cleveland State (9.4)
West Virginia (13.9) over Dayton (7.6)
Kansas (13.9)
USC (6.4) over Boston College (5.5)
Michigan State (11.2)
Second Round
Louisville (15.1) over Sienna (9.1)
Wake Forest (12.7) over Utah (9.9) – mid majors with a disadvantage of more than 2 are just 3-20
Kansas (13.9) over West Virginia (13.9) -- WVU struggles to score and that will prevent them from winning this game.
Michigan State (11.2) over USC (6.4)
EAST BRACKET
Final Four Team: Pittsburgh
Elite Eight Match-Up: Pittsburgh v. UCLA
Sweet Sixteen: Pittsburgh, UCLA, Duke and Xavier
First Round
Pittsburg (17.2)
Oklahoma State (8.4) over Tennessee (7.2)
Xavier (12.7) over Portland State (7.0)
Wisconsin (7.8) over Florida State (5.1) -- this is the 5/12 match-up upset
UCLA (16.6) over VCU (11.2)
Villanova (13.1)
Texas (8.4) over Minnesota (7.0)
Duke (15.1)
2nd Round
Pittsburgh (17.2) over Oklahoma State (8.4)
Xavier (12.7) over Wisconsin (7.8)
UCLA (16.6) over Villanova (13.1)
Duke (15.1) over Texas (8.4)
SOUTH BRACKET
Final Four: Gonzaga
Elite Eight: Gonzaga over Oklahoma
Sweet Sixteen: Gonzaga, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Arizona State
First Round
North Carolina (19.2)
Butler (14.2) over LSU (11.6) -- this is inside the 3.0 differential but LSU is a poor offensive team.
Illinois (11.0) over Western Kentucky (6.9)
Gonzaga (22.4) over Akron (9.1)
Arizona State (13.7) over Temple (7.3) -- ASU is one of the best offensive teams in the tourney
Syracuse (10.1)
Clemson (12.7) over Michigan (5.6)
Oklahoma (14.0)
Second Round
North Carolina (19.2) over Butler (14.2) -- majors with a efficiency differential over 3 v. mid-major are 20-3 since 2005
Gonzaga (22.4) over Illinois (11.0) -- teams with a differential advantage over 10 are 29-0
Arizona State (13.7) over Syracuse (10.1)
Oklahoma (14.0) over Clemson (12.7)
FINAL FOUR
Gonzaga wins National Championship with win over Memphis
This content requires the latest Adobe Flash Player and a browser with JavaScript enabled.
Click here for a free download of the latest Adobe Flash Player.
