David Locke

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Who Can Win This Thing? Part 1

By Steve Baxter

I have collected the last 15 year’s of Final Four teams or 60 teams.  With that I have created certain qualifications for a Final Four Team.  I have created two different qualifications for teams. 

Fatal Flaws:  90% of Final Four Teams have this qualification.  If your team doesn’t match this level in all likelihood they will be exposed before they reach the Final Four.
Must Do’s:   70% of all Final Four Teams performed at this statistical level.

YOU WILL NOT GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF …

1. Offensive Efficiency is below 91 ---   

2. If you defensive efficiency is above 82.1.. 

3. If your efficiency differential is below 11
4. Effective Field Goal % is under 50.5%  

5. If your defensive Effective Field Goal % is over 47.7% 
6. If your effective field goal % differential is under 4.5

7. If your rebounding % is below 51%

8. If you turnover just 16% of your defensive possessions. (2)


Finally, what does a Final Four team look like. These are the qualities that 70% of the last 16years worth of Final Four Teams have.

YOU CAN GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….(at least 70% of Final Four Teams)

1. Offensive Efficiency over 93

2. Defensive Efficiency under 81.

3. Efficiency Difference is over 13

4. Effective Field Goal over 52.5%
5. Defensive effective Field Goal below 46.6%
6. Field Goal Differential over 6.3

7. Rebounding % over 52.8%

8. Defensive turnover % must be over 17.5% 

WEST REGIONAL

TEAM
DIFFERENTIAL FATAL FLAWS CAN GO’S
Syracuse 17.6 0 7
Kansas State 11.8 1 3
Pittsburg 8.9 4 2
Vanderbilt 10.2 3 3
Butler 13.8 0 5
Xavier 13.2 2 5
BYU 23.2 0 8
Gonzaga 13.2 1 6
Florida State 10.4 2 5
Florida 7.8 6 1
Minnesota 12.4 1 4
UTEP 14.5 1 7

 

SOUTH REGIONAL

TEAM
DIFFERENTIAL FATAL FLAWS CAN GO’S
Duke 20.4 0 7
Villanova 11.4 1 4
Baylor 14.8 2 5
Purdue 14.9 2 5
Texas A&M 8.8 4 1
Notre Dame 9.4 4 2
Richmond 9.9 3 2
California 12.0 2 3
Louisville 8.2 4 1
St. Mary’s 17.3 2 5
Utah State 19.4 2 6
       

 

MIDWEST REGIONAL

TEAM
DIFFERENTIAL FATAL FLAWS CAN GO’S
Kansas 21.8 0 7
Ohio State 17.4 1 5
Georgetown 11.1 1 3
Maryland 14.2 1 4
Michigan State 11.2 1 3
Tennessee 10.6 4 3
Oklahoma State 7.9 4 1
UNLV 13.5 1 5
Northern Iowa 13.2 2 4
Georgia Tech 9.5 1 5
San Diego State 11.6 0 5
New Mexico State 1.0 6 2
Houston 4.9 6 2

 

EAST REGIONAL

TEAM
DIFFERENTIAL FATAL FLAWS CAN GO’S
Kentucky 17.0 0 7
West Virginia 11.8 2 3
New Mexico 12.0 3 3
Wisconsin 16.2 0 5
Temple 12.2 3 4
Marquette 11.7 4 2
Clemson 11.5 1 3
Texas 13.0 0 6
Wake Forest 5.3 4 3
Missouri 14.0 2 4
Washington 11.5 2 2
Wofford 10.7 3 3
Sienna 12.3 3 2

 

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