DJ & PK

Tools

Patrick Kinahan's Weekend Prediction Blog

PK Makes His Picks

By Steve Baxter

PK BLOG

 

It all rests with Max Hall, who can cement his legacy as a great BYU quarterback or one who only could beat up on lightweights.
 
So goes the theory as the Cougars prepare for Saturday’s showdown against TCU. And I don’t buy it at all.
 
Hall isn’t even the key to a BYU victory. Yes, he needs to play well for the Cougars to have a shot, but I don’t think it’s the first priority.
 
BYU’s most important ingredient rests with the defense. No defense, no piece (of maintaining first place in the MWC).
 
Without a strong defensive effort, the offense won’t play well. To me, the assertion is obvious.
 
Three games stand out as examples.
 
Let’s start with this season’s loss to FloridaState. As soon as it became clear that BYU’s defense couldn’t stop the Seminoles, the offense went into desperation mode.
 
When Hall presses, bad things happen. Review last season’s loss in Fort Worth to additionally support the theory.
 
Conversely, a strong defensive effort goes hand-in-hand with success on offense. This year’s win over Oklahoma offers more proof.
 
Instead of panicking, thinking he’s got to direct a touchdown drive on every possession, Hall looked composed for most of the game. With the game on the line, he engineered one of the best drives in BYU history.
 
Can the defense come through? We should know midway through the first quarter.
Last season, the Horned Frogs smacked BYU’s defense early and often, leading to its most embarrassing performance. As Jan Jorgensen told me after practice this week, the defense must prove to itself and TCU that it can compete.
 
If the Horned Frogs stall early, an audible sigh of relief will resonate through LaVell Edwards Stadium. A relaxed Hall is a good Hall.
 
With this in mind, here goes the predictions.
 
 
TCU at BYU:
 
Gary Patterson is out for blood, although it’s not totally related to BYU. The TCU coach is on a rampage to earn respect for his program.
 
The little, plumb coach believes – and rightly so – that his team belongs among the nation’s elite. He’s miffed that Boise State is ranked ahead of the Horned Frogs and that voters dropped his team after beating Air Force two weeks ago.
 
BYU stands in the way of his take-no-prisoners attitude. Too bad the Cougars don’t adopt the same attitude.
 
As we know, playing off emotion isn’t Bronco Mendenhall’s style. It’s hard to argue with his track record, but the players had better take it upon themselves to jumpstart the intensity.
 
If the Cougars control quarterback Andy Dalton and special teams star Jeremy Kerley, they should be in great shape. Even against TCU’s great defense, Max Hall ought to be able to come up with points if he gets enough chances.
 
But the memory of the FloridaState debacle is still fresh on my mind. And when you add in San DiegoState’s success last week, I’m not sold on BYU.
 
TCU 24, BYU 23
 
 
Air Force at Utah
 
There are the Utes, in that familiar position of lying low. An oversized, old couch down in the basement isn’t as comfortable.
 
Halfway through the season, we still aren’t sure about the Utes. Just how good are they?
While we won’t know the answer until the schedule turns tough next month, it’s obvious they are good enough to beat the Falcons.
 
Two concerns: Joe Dale’s injury and the Air Force defense.
 
The timing of the starting safety’s injury isn’t good going into the week of preparation against the tricky option. The good news for Utah is the Falcons aren’t nearly as good at running it this season.
 
But the Air Force defense is improved over recent seasons. The Utes can’t afford more than one turnover.
 
Utah 24, Air Force 12
This content requires the latest Adobe Flash Player and a browser with JavaScript enabled. Click here for a free download of the latest Adobe Flash Player.